6.7% hike in soybean harvest should bring 2020 harvest to record 240.9 million tons
The national grain harvest of 2020 is expected to reach 240,913,898 million tons, which will be a record. If confirmed, the result will exceed 33.6 thousand tons expected for 2019. According to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), estimates indicate that the 2019 and 2020 harvests should become the largest in the historical series started. in 1975. They will exceed the current record in 2017, when it totaled 238.4 million tons.
The numbers are in the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPA), released today (10), by IBGE.
According to forecasts, soybean production will grow 6.7%, cotton 2.0% and rice 1.0%, but corn will fall 7.5%. The same should happen with beans in first crop grain with a decrease of 0.3%.
For corn, IBGE estimates production of 92.7 million tons next year. The expected 7.5% reduction compared to the 2019 harvest means a decrease of 7.5 million tons. "There is a tendency for a higher volume of corn production in the second crop, and this crop should participate with 72.3% of national production for 2020, against 27.7% of the first corn crop," observed the researcher. from IBGE, Carlos Barradas.
In soybeans, the 6.7% can represents a total of 120.8 million tons in 2020. Among the largest producers, much of this volume refers to Mato Grosso. There the estimate is to harvest 33 million tons. Compared to 2019, it represents growth of 2.2%. Paraná, which is the second largest producer, forecasts an increase of 22.5%, with production of 19.8 million tons. Also if confirmed, it will mean a recovery, since in 2019 severe rainfall restrictions and excess heat during the crop cycle compromised the crop.
The national harvest is also expected to reach 240,880,344 million tons in 2019. This surpasses the 2017 record of 2.4 million tons. According to the IBGE, it represents a 6.4% increase compared to what was produced in 2018, when it reached 226.5 million tons.
The LSPA figures indicate that the result was influenced by corn production, which should record a record 100.2 million in 2019, reaching 25.9 million tons in the first crop and 74.3 million tons in the second. The volume means an increase of 23.2% compared to the previous year. In the researcher's view, the price conjuncture that encouraged the planting of second crop corn was one of the factors that favored the increase. "The weather also behaved favorably," he explained.
The improvement in prices also favored the possible record in cotton production compared to the IBGE history series. It should reach 6.9 tons in this year's crop, representing an increase of 39.8% compared to the previous year.
Soybeans and rice, however, should show a fall in production. The harvest of 113.2 million tons of soybean in 2019 is equivalent to a 4% decline compared to 2018. In rice, the 9.5% reduction in planted area and 12% in the area to be harvested caused drop in production. The IBGE estimates a total of 10.3 million tons, a result 12% lower than last year. With a forecast of 63.2 million hectares in the area to be harvested in 2019, the calculation is for growth of 3.7% compared to 2018. The percentage is equivalent to an increase of 2.2 million hectares. It was also in 2017, the previous production record. 238.4 million tons were produced.
(*) With information from Agência Brasil
Comex Team from Brazil